The heightened instability in the Middle East continues to influence the global market outlook, particularly through energy supply risks and inflation pressures. Our scenario analysis below sets out three potential paths - our base case (what we expect), the bear case and the bull case - each with differing implications for inflation, economic growth and market sentiment. Across each of the scenarios, any portfolio changes we consider will be firmly based around our data driv

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to weigh on global equity markets, as investors remain wary of the inflationary risks posed by elevated energy prices. Japanese equities were hit hardest last week, while China fared best. US: EQUITY SELLOFF INTENSIFIES AS MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT WEIGHS ON SENTIMENT US equities fell for a third week as the Middle East conflict and volatile oil prices continued to weigh on sentiment. Investors are balancing the risk of prolonged s

OMPS - Tactical Trade Update March 2026 On 10 March 2026, we initiated instructions to conduct two trades and a full rebalance of the OMPS portfolios. Here is a summary of the changes: Summary We reduced exposure to US Large Caps through the Omnis US Equity Leaders Fund. Excessive market concentration and stretched valuations following the AI-induced equity market rally sees us cautious on the outlook for US Large Caps. In addition, we believe that any further escalation in t

Global markets swung sharply this week following the attack in Iran, with oil and gas prices jumping and equities falling across most regions. Oil jumped ~20%, gas surged ~60%, and global equities, and bonds, fell across the board. These types of market moves are common when major geopolitical events occur. They often reflect uncertainty, and not necessarily long-term economic damage. All eyes remain on how the conflict unfolds and the impact this could have on energy markets

Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered the Spring Statement 2026 on the 3rd March alongside the latest Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) Economic and Fiscal Outlook, providing an updated picture of the UK economy and public finances. The Spring Forecast points to falling inflation, lower borrowing and steady economic growth, with living standards expected to improve over the course of the Parliament. While the Statement did not introduce major new policy announcements, it o

The global economic backdrop was mixed last week, with shifting monetary policy expectations, geopolitical developments and tariff uncertainty. Despite varied market drivers, themes such as improving confidence in parts of Europe and Japan, firmer policy signals in the UK, and renewed risk appetite in China helped shape overall sentiment. The US was again the laggard, as we saw a continued rotation into other regions. US: AI disruption concerns weigh on equities US equities f

What's Happened? The United States and Israel launched a large scale coordinated military operation against Iran on February 28, 2026, targeting Iranian leadership, ballistic missile sites, and key military infrastructure. The escalation follows stalled nuclear talks and months of rising tensions between the nations. Iran's Supreme National Security Council confirmed that their Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the initial strikes, along with dozens of senio

*NB: This update was prepared at the end of February 2026, before the US and Israeli attacks on Iran. Markets steady as tariff fears ease. Global market concerns surrounding tariffs eased when the Supreme Court ruled that the mechanism used in President Trump’s sweeping Liberation Day tariffs were unlawful. Trump subsequently announced new tariffs would come into effect at 15% (via another mechanism). In the end a 10% blanket rate was added. Whilst the administration can stil

A broadly positive week for global equities, as favourable macroeconomic data supported investor sentiment. UK and European equities extended their year-to-date outperformance of the US, while Japan took a breather following an exceptionally strong start to 2026. US: POLICY MAKERS SPLIT ON NEAR-TERM INTEREST RATE CUTS US equities finished the shortened week higher, with markets rallying on Friday after the Supreme Court overturned President Trump’s global tariffs, boosting s

AI disruption concerns again dominate global markets, with the US subsequently lagging global peers. Japan was the standout performer with stocks rallying strongly on the Liberal Democratic Party achieving a supermajority. US: Tech sector sell-off intensifies, while jobs data surprises to the upside US equities declined over the week as concerns about widespread AI disruption pressured markets, with the Tech-dominated Nasdaq being hit hardest. Value stocks outperformed growth

Despite geopolitical turbulence, it was a positive month for markets A positive start to the year. Global markets rebounded after President Donald Trump said a framework on a future deal for Greenland had been reached. He said he would no longer impose tariffs on some European countries and ruled out taking Greenland by force, helping to calm investor nerves after renewed trade-war risks had caused European stocks to slip and US Treasury yields to spike. Equity markets were

Global equity markets were mixed for the week, as investors reacted to the US Federal Reserve meeting. UK equities were the best performer, while Japanese equities lagged due to a large rally in the Japanese Yen. US: S&P 500 briefly touches record highs before pulling back on softening investor sentiment U.S. equities advanced, with the S&P 500 briefly topping 7,000 (an all-time high) before paring gains. Large‑cap value stocks outperformed, while small and mid‑caps lagged. M

Global equity markets declined amid elevated geopolitical and trade-related uncertainty. However, stocks recovered from their lows after President Trump once again shifted his stance, boosting investor confidence. US: Equity markets end volatile week modestly lower Major US equity markets ended a volatile and shortened week lower. Equities posted their largest daily fall since October following President Trump announcing he would impose tariffs on European countries that oppo

From April 2026, business owners and farmers can pass on up to £2.5 million each in qualifying assets free of inheritance tax. Married couples and civil partners can combine allowances to pass on up to £5 million. Assets above these thresholds are taxed at 20%, half the normal rate. Key Facts at a Glance What's changing Detail New relief threshold £2.5 million per person (up from proposed £1m) Effective date April 2026 Combined allowance for couples £5 million Tax rate above

A mixed week for global equities, as we saw a continued rotation into smaller companies and value stocks. Japanese equities were the standout performer, rising sharply on expectations of a large economic stimulus package. US: Small companies and value stocks extend their year-to-date outperformance Stocks were mixed for the week as small cap and value shares extended their outperformance while large cap indexes eased from record levels. Early earnings reports produced mixed r

Global equities rallied in the first full week of trading for 2026, as investors looked through rising geopolitical tensions. Japanese equities led the charge, while we saw a broadening of the market rally in the United States US: EQUITIES RALLY AS INVESTORS LOOK PAST MOUNTING GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS Small cap and value stocks outperformed large cap growth shares, which have dominated returns in recent years. Aerospace and defence companies initially sold off following comments

As we leave the year behind and move into 2026, the mortgage market stands at an important turning point. After two years of shifting interest rates, fluctuating buyer sentiment and ongoing cost pressures, many households are now prioritising stability. The year ahead is set to bring fresh opportunities, along with a few uncertainties, and understanding the direction of travel will be crucial for anyone planning to buy, move or remortgage. Last year saw a gradual return of co

Equity markets closed the year strongly as investors looked past tariff turmoil Equities shrug off uncertainty. Markets finished the year strongly, with major indices ending on a high. Global equities looked past the turmoil caused by President Donald Trump’s tariffs, posting a third consecutive year of double-digit gains in 2025. US stocks also enjoyed a robust year, supported by solid corporate earnings, enthusiasm around artificial intelligence and optimism over potential

At first glance, things like coffee and chocolate might not seem to have much to do with mortgages. But as you might have noticed, both have become noticeably more expensive in recent months. Don’t worry, this isn’t another lecture about skipping your morning latte or Starbucks trip to save for your house deposit. Instead it’s a call to look behind those higher prices where you’ll find a bigger story about inflation, which has a direct impact on the mortgage deals available t

Life can be full of surprises. You can’t be prepared for everything. You may have some insurance to support you financially if the unexpected happens, but have you considered how private medical insurance might offer you and your family the peace of mind you need if your health takes a turn for the worst? A growing trend According to data published by The Telegraph, patients are opting for private healthcare in record numbers as the NHS is blighted by long wait times and stri