2019 turned out to be a bumper year for shares and bonds as the global economy did not slow as much as expected and central banks kept interest rates low. However, economic and political uncertainty weighed on the markets at different stages, and several issues remain unresolved.

What does 2020 hold in store for investors?

Starting at home, Brexit uncertainty should persist despite the substantial majority won by Boris Johnson at the general election. The UK will leave the EU on 31st January and enter a transition period until 31st Decembe...

LAST WEEK – KEY TAKEAWAYs

Middle East: US airstrike kills Iranian general

• Global shares fell after the US military assassinated Qasem Soleimani, one of Iran’s top generals, who President Trump accused of targeting US interests in the Middle East;
• Government bonds rallied as investors switched their money into what are traditionally considered safe-haven assets (a government is less likely to default), while oil prices also rose due to the threat of disruption to supplies.
• Omnis view: Once again, President Trump’s unpredictability has r...

LAST WEEK – KEY TAKEAWAYS

UK: Parliament backs Brexit withdrawal bill, but uncertainty returns

• The Prime Minister secured a comfortable parliamentary majority for his Brexit withdrawal bill which means the UK will leave the EU on 31^st January 2020;
• The pound weakened against the US dollar as the legislation prevents Mr Johnson from extending the transition period, so a ‘no deal’ Brexit remains a possibility if the UK and EU fail to negotiate a free trade deal before 31^st December 2020;
• There was further bad news for the pound when the ...

LAST WEEK – Key Takeaways

UK: Tory election success paves way for Brexit progress

• UK assets rallied as the Conservative party won a comprehensive victory in the general election, ending up with a parliamentary majority of 80 seats;
• The pound strengthened against the US dollar and the euro, while the FTSE 250 index of domestically focused companies outperformed the FTSE 100 which is mostly made up of international earners.

• Omnis view: Focus now turns to how the Prime Minister will use his majority. The priority should be securing his ...

LAST WEEK – KEY Takeaways

Trade: US and China still negotiating as Trump turns attention elsewhere

Global shares fell when US President Donald Trump claimed he was willing to postpone a trade deal with China until after the US presidential election in November 2020;
However, the markets recovered as media reports suggested the US and China are getting closer to agreeing on reduced tariffs- taxes on goods imported from abroad- for the first phase of a deal;
Elsewhere, President Trump announced he would reintroduce tariffs on steel imported ...

LAST WEEK: KEY TAKEAWAYS

UK: Election polling sways the pound

• The pound weakened against the US dollar early in the week after a poll by research firm Kantar showed the Conservatives’ lead in the general election shrinking;

• However, it recovered when further polls, including one from YouGov which successfully forecast the outcome of the 2017 election, indicated the Conservatives would win a majority.

• Omnis view: A Conservative majority would ease Brexit uncertainty in the short term as Boris Johnson should then have enough support ...

LAST WEEK – KEY TAKEAWAYS

Trade: Initial deal between US and China remains elusive

• Global shares have stopped rising as markets await firm news on trade developments between the US and China;

• The signals were mixed, as optimism amongst negotiators was countered by the risk that the US had aggravated China by passing the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act which allows it to impose sanctions on anyone believed to be repressing human rights;
• Time is running short, but the market still expects a positive announcement this year.

• ...

LAST WEEK – KEY TAKEAWAYS

UK: Brexit Party’s U-turn boosts Tory election chances

• The pound strengthened against the US dollar after the Brexit party announced it would not stand candidates in seats held by Conservative MPs;
• There was mixed news for the UK economy- growth slowed but unemployment dropped slightly in the third quarter of the year, while inflation- the rate at which prices rise- fell in October.

• Omnis view: The Brexit party’s U-turn increases the chances of the Conservatives winning a majority in Parliament which would a...